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Introduction to Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science
Note: Aside from being my presentation notes during the Fall 2001 lecture series for JohnBelt's design classes at [Oswego State University] (and again in Spring and Fall of 2002 on subsequent visits), this page was also an experiment in demonstrating how to use Wiki software in a dynamic group situation, rather than a traditional whiteboard for note taking. (This principle was explored again July, 2002 when members of the WorldFutureSociety used this wiki to capture the ongoing discussions, URLs, and results of workshop discussion.) Please check the Professional Futurists page for a more detailed report on how it went.
People in both the design classes and the Futurist workshop were able to ask questions and we could easily head off in different directions, since the subject matter was malleable and we were building as we went. Participants could share URLs and recommend links, and these were captured instantly and made into a live resource. The material was available immediately online and students could review or explore the materials covered from home in between classes. The futurists were able to access these notes and resources after they returned home from the conference, and no one was left with a pile of paper and the task of transcribing everyone's info/addresses into the computer and mailing them out to everyone else.
Both groups could post questions from their homes after I returned to California, and we could maintain contact and dialog, without being constrained by the limited time in the classroom or at the conference.
Overall, I felt both experiments were highly successful. The Wiki software made it easy to organize and present on a wide range of topics (see below) in a coherent manner. It was simplistic to update on the fly, and we weren't left with lots of outdated photocopies laying around as I kept revising my notes throughout the week. It also taught the students about the Wiki system, and some of them are continuing to use it more than a year later to collect/refine/publish their own ideas and work.
General Overview: What is Comprehensive Anticipatory Design Science? Why is it cool?
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change
something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.
--R. Buckminster Fuller
- Working with manufacturers:
- Designers are the bridge between manufacturers and consumers.
- Must untrain yourself so as not to think like consumers. (Goes against our social upbringing.)
- We have the job to envision and specify new ideas and products.
- Excellent resource for designers: The [Thomas Register] of North American Manufacturers. Free registration, and access to info and listings for more than 170,000 different companies in North America that will help you to produce whatever it is you dream up.
- Harold Cohen quote (p. 25 of "Design Outlaws" book) (Type this in.)
- Sometimes design involves "removing", not just building. (Making things obsolete.)
- "Rubber Raft" analogy (read essay in next link for that analogy explained.)
- [Troublemakers essay] - Pissing off folks. :-)
"Is it a disaster that one-fourth of the world's population is presently
ill-fed, ill-housed and ill-clothed? Is it a disaster that one-third of all
the people in Asia, South America, and Africa are protein-starved? They are
disasters because they affect the support and recycling of life. Because of
our daily reporting system, we tend to think of a disaster happening in a
shorter period of time rather than something chronic or of long-standing such
as mental illness or slow protein starvation."
-- Harold L. Cohen - The Whole is the Particular (p.60)
(a nice 1-page overview of how this all fits together, and what needs to be done.)
Shelter and Housing
- Rate of adoption of new technologies (from conception to widespread use)
- Computers: 18-24 months
- Cars: 5-7 years
- Planes & helicopters: 10-20 years
- Housing & building industries: ~62 years (!)
- Wichita House - 1947 - 54 years ago (as of 2001)
- Target of production was 50,000 homes in 1947 (compare vs. ultra-ambitious target of 10,000,000 homes/year for Autonomous House)
- Dymaxion House - 1927 - 74 years ago(as of 2001)
- "Million Dollar Estate" ad from San Jose Mercury News: "You always wanted a million-dollar estate...you just figured it would have more than 900 sq. ft."
- [Emergency Shelter Systems]
- Autonomous Houses
- Advanced Designs:
- Ocean floating homes
- Aquatic Pod Suite from Hammacher Schlemmer (Need to make a page for this and link to it.)
- Balloon lofted homes
- For simple fabrication of domes: http://reality.sculptors.com/cgi-bin/wiki?SimplicityDomes
- Quote from "Antarctica", by Kim Stanley Robinson (link to this on a separate wiki page.)
- [Mars Society] research habitats
[Earthweek] column - regular diary of events happening around the planet. Useful tool for designers, as it lets you know where some disasters are, and what their overall effects have been on housing, life support, death tolls, etc.
Introduction to Wiki as collaborative tool. (This page, for example.)
- 2 billion people on Earth suffer regular water shortages.
- 1 billion of those have no regular supply of safe drinking water.
- These facts, plus poor sanitation, contribute to approximately 80% of world sickness.
- Flushless urinals - each saves approximately 50,000 gallons of water per year.
- Urinals in houses
- Aesthetic issues? Perhaps put into a closable cabinet?
- Men have ~6:1 urination:defecation ratio
- Ease of converting existing urinals to flushless? (As simple as pouring in some oil?)
- Ultra-low flush (1-2 times/day to automatically freshen & rinse urinal)
- Redrawing County lines to match watershed boundaries - "Antarctica", p. 639
- [Living Machines]
- Providence, Rhode Island - living machine processing waste of 150 families
- Burlington, Vermont - 80,000 gallons of raw sewage/day
- Mobile living machine on back of tractor-trailer - 50,000 gallons of raw sewage/day (brought to San Francisco for one demonstration)
- Women should have a simple waste separation method (toilet redesign needed)
- Some homebuilt composting toilets/outhouses use a simple hay/screen filter that allows fluids to drain through, then a pull of a lever flips the solid material into a separate composting chamber.
- Separation is needed for efficient composting. The ammonia & other chemicals in urine interfere with the microorganisms that conduct the composting process.
- Automatic toilet packaging & periodic waste removal (new industry potential)
- Many different methods of hydro. Can be suited to local conditions & materials.
- Can be much more productive than soil-based farming. [(Comparative Yields)]
- Link to Gus Frederick's work.
Power Systems and Energy
- Solar Heating / Thermal Mass
- Fuel Cells
- Ballard (BLDP)
- Manhattan Scientifics (MHTX)
- Hydrogen outgassing from (solar/wall-current) battery charging
- Mobile vs. Stationary (~20Kw vs. 2-5Kw)
- Wind Power
- [Moray] and [POV-Ray] - Powerful and inexpensive/free tools for design, visualization, and communication.
- [Rapid Prototyping]
- Atmospheric Condensers
- Oasis Machines
- "Mr. Condense-It" tabletop/household appliance
- [Synergy Ball]
- Floating Cities
- Population issues
- Amory Lovins: 10 million hypercar fleet = 5x power generating capacity of all current fossil fuel plants in America = obsolesence of fossil fuel generated energy industry
- Uranium Hot Rocks
- Buffalo redesign project - reinvention of entire city.
- (Un)Corporate design of the company:
- Think-tank / Do-tank
- Self-sufficient, no debt, run on wind & sun power - not as susceptible to market fluctuations.
- Break as many accepted rules of business as possible! :-)
- Harold Cohen: Concept of "marriage"-type relationship & long-term commitment.
- Compare with current job practices & pseudo-commitment on both sides. (Especially corporate side.)
- Compare with older Japanese tradition of lifetime relationship.
- Poll Students: Give job-pitch. Ask if they'd consider the deal. Why, or why not?
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